Crypto Fell Again: Here’s What On-Chain Predictions Say About Iran War

Three major nuclear sites, Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan, in Iran faced bombing attacks from the US early on June 22. The US claims the facilities have been “obliterated.”

According to a Sunday AP News report, the 13,500 kilogram bombs, called the GBU-57, were released from a B-2 stealth bomber plane and can penetrate 18 meters into the ground.

The impact of the bombs and the exact damage haven’t been officially confirmed yet.

Data from the market prediction platform Polymarket indicates that there is still a 2% chance of the US officially declaring war against Iran. One of the trending polls, with a $2 million trading volume, suggests a 38% probability of a nuclear deal between the two countries.

The US bombardment comes as Iran and Israel have been striking missiles at each other since June 13.

Despite the US intelligence agencies claiming that Iran is not actively developing a nuclear bomb, US President Donald Trump and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have been stressing Iran’s progress on having a weapon of mass destruction, according to AP News.

War and Bears

The latest bombing attack on Iran triggered another selloff within the crypto market.  According to data from CoinMarketCap, the global crypto market capitalization decreased by nearly 2% in 24 hours to $3.14 trillion. The downward momentum pushed the market into the bearish zone as the CMC Fear and Greed Index dropped to a two-month low of 40.

Bitcoin (BTC) declined 1% to $102,400 while Ethereum (ETH) fell 7% to $2,260.

Moreover, the fears of a potential war between the US and Iran have also increased the chances of a recession in 2025, rising from 23% on June 12 to 30% at the time of reporting.

The uncertainty surrounding current macroeconomic conditions and speculation about increasing tension in the Middle East could trigger further volatility within the cryptocurrency market, especially among low-cap altcoins.

The US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep the interest rates unchanged could add to the market-wide correction, as the community has been eying lower borrowing rates.