Community

Midterm prediction: 30% short-term returns?

1 day ago

Disclaimer: For discussion purposes only, not investment advice.

It seems like nobody on this forum is talking about this, but I think there's a short-term (within a few days) event with a high probability of earning 30% — the midterm prediction.

Dems taking the Senate is still at 30% odds, and TX flipping blue is also at 30%.

In TX early voting, Republicans aren't pulling ahead at all — by election day it's probably GGs.

But based on the polls and early vote I've been following recently, there's actually an 80-90% probability.

Don't bring up how polls got it wrong when Trump was running — several pollsters actually predicted it correctly. The credible ones I follow basically all predicted both chambers flipping. My own guess is a final 53-47, flipping TX, and flipping one of IA and KS.

And no BS — I've already put real money down myself.

Midterm prediction: 30% short-term returns?

1.9K

Comments (3)

酒道师1 day ago

Which platform did you see that 30% odds on, and how's the liquidity?

Sallyliu1 day ago

For these short-term event positions, you also need to factor in the settlement cycle and withdrawal timing. Don't just focus on the rate of return—sometimes having your money stuck on the platform is worse than making a wrong call.

路过一下12 hours ago

Polls suggest both chambers are fairly likely to flip, but the margins in those Senate swing states are actually pretty wide—a precise score like 53-47 is more of a guess. Also, the partisan gap in early voting only shows structure, not the final outcome, and the 30% odds may already reflect a lot of market sentiment rather than being a genuine mispricing.